SC12 Home > SC12 Schedule > SC12 Presentation - Host Load Prediction in a Google Compute Cloud with a Bayesian Model

SCHEDULE: NOV 10-16, 2012

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Host Load Prediction in a Google Compute Cloud with a Bayesian Model

SESSION: Cloud Computing

EVENT TYPE: Papers

TIME: 2:00PM - 2:30PM

SESSION CHAIR: Manish Parashar

AUTHOR(S):Sheng Di, Derrick Kondo, Walfredo Cirne

ROOM:355-D

ABSTRACT:
Prediction of host load in Cloud systems is critical for achieving service-level agreements. However, accurate prediction of host load in Clouds is extremely challenging because it fluctuates drastically at small timescales. We design a prediction method based on Bayes model to predict the mean load over a long-term time interval, as well as the mean load in consecutive future time intervals. We identify novel predictive features of host load that capture the expectation, predictability, trends and patterns of host load. We also determine the most effective combinations of these features for prediction. We evaluate our method using a detailed one-month trace of a Google data center with thousands of machines. Experiments show that the Bayes method achieves high accuracy with a mean squared error of 0.0014. Moreover, the Bayes method improves the load prediction accuracy by 5.6-50% compared to other state-of-the-art methods based on moving averages, auto-regression, and/or noise filters.

Chair/Author Details:

Manish Parashar (Chair) - Rutgers University

Sheng Di - INRIA

Derrick Kondo - INRIA

Walfredo Cirne - Google

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Host Load Prediction in a Google Compute Cloud with a Bayesian Model

SESSION: Cloud Computing

EVENT TYPE:

TIME: 2:00PM - 2:30PM

SESSION CHAIR: Manish Parashar

AUTHOR(S):Sheng Di, Derrick Kondo, Walfredo Cirne

ROOM:355-D

ABSTRACT:
Prediction of host load in Cloud systems is critical for achieving service-level agreements. However, accurate prediction of host load in Clouds is extremely challenging because it fluctuates drastically at small timescales. We design a prediction method based on Bayes model to predict the mean load over a long-term time interval, as well as the mean load in consecutive future time intervals. We identify novel predictive features of host load that capture the expectation, predictability, trends and patterns of host load. We also determine the most effective combinations of these features for prediction. We evaluate our method using a detailed one-month trace of a Google data center with thousands of machines. Experiments show that the Bayes method achieves high accuracy with a mean squared error of 0.0014. Moreover, the Bayes method improves the load prediction accuracy by 5.6-50% compared to other state-of-the-art methods based on moving averages, auto-regression, and/or noise filters.

Chair/Author Details:

Manish Parashar (Chair) - Rutgers University

Sheng Di - INRIA

Derrick Kondo - INRIA

Walfredo Cirne - Google

Add to iCal  Click here to download .ics calendar file

Add to Outlook  Click here to download .vcs calendar file

Add to Google Calendarss  Click here to add event to your Google Calendar